Tehran/Tel Aviv/Washington: The US bombed Iran's three nuclear sites, Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan, on Sunday. A day after that, on Monday (23 June), Iran retaliated by attacking the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar. This airbase is operated by the US Air Force and is the forward headquarters of the US Central Command. This attack by Iran was well planned, well-orchestrated and, to put it simply, symbolic. Iran used low-capacity missiles. Apart from this, before the attack, Iran informed Qatar and America about firing missiles. Iran's aim was clear that there should be no casualties in its attack. All Iranian missiles were intercepted and no one was injured in the attack. Donald Trump himself confirmed this and said that 'the Iranian attack was weak and as expected'. He further said that 'hopefully there will be no hatred in the future.' Donald Trump has said in another new post that 'ceasefire has been implemented. Please do not violate it.' Donald Trump earlier wrote in a post that "I want to thank Iran for informing us in advance, due to which no one was killed and no one was injured. Perhaps Iran can now move forward towards peace and harmony in the region and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same." Less than two hours after his post, Trump once again said that "Israel and Iran have agreed to a complete and total ceasefire, which will come into effect in approximately 6 hours after both countries complete and conclude their final missions!" Monday was the 11th consecutive day of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran and on the 11th day Israel launched a very dangerous attack and attacked the headquarters of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Today, the ceasefire has been achieved on the 12th day.
Iran-Israel War.
How was Iran's attack on Qatar a big gamble?
Iran has claimed that the US attack on its three nuclear sites has neither destroyed Iran's enrichment capacity nor destroyed its existing stock of enriched uranium. Iranian officials have claimed that before the attacks, the stock of 60%, 20% and 3.67% enriched uranium was partially or completely removed from the Fordo nuclear site. Iranian officials say that if talks ever start again between the US and Iran on the nuclear deal in the future, then enriched uranium will be the center of the talks. Arab media reports show that the US also informed Iran before attacking. The purpose of which was to prevent people from being killed. During the 11-day war, Iran maintained a clear stand on two things. 1- If Israel stops the attacks, then it is ready for talks again. 2- If the US joins the war with Israel, then attacks will also be carried out on US military bases in the Middle East.
For Iran, attacking US military bases in Arab countries was a big gamble. Iran chose a country like Qatar for the attack, which clearly indicates that it only wanted to send a message to the US in the name of the attack. Qatar was the most prominent negotiator for peace between Israel and Iran and has very strong diplomatic relations with Iran. When Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain imposed sanctions on Qatar between 2017-21, Iran was made a mediator to restart the talks. So this time too, Iran informed Qatar about an hour before the attack and Qatar closed its airspace. Apart from this, America also removed most of its high value aircraft from Airbase Al-Udeid.
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Heavy loss to Iran in 12 days of war
America had attacked Iranian land for the first time. But in the last 12 days of fighting, Israel has carried out terrible attacks in Iran and caused devastating damage. Almost all air defense systems of Iran were destroyed, more than 10 nuclear scientists were killed, its military capability and the ability to make nuclear bombs have been severely damaged. Many reports have said that it is not possible for Iran to make a nuclear bomb without anyone's help for the next several years. Israel continuously threatened during this visit that its goal is not only to destroy nuclear sites but also to change the regime in Iran. Along with threatening to kill the Iranian Supreme Leader, Israel also called on the people of Iran to mobilize against the 'Islamic regime'.
Iran's biggest success in the last 11 days of conflict is that it has shown the world that it can penetrate Israel's multi-layer air defense system. Apart from this, Iran successfully shot down at least 50 missiles in Israel, demonstrating the capability of its missiles. After the US attacks, the IRGC used its domestic Khebar Shakan solid fuel missiles against Israel for the first time. This attack was accurate and the Israeli air defense was able to intercept it.
Failed to intercept. This is why on Monday Israel carried out the most destructive attacks in the last 11 days of conflict. Iran has suffered the most damage in Israel's attack on Monday. However, it remains to be seen in which direction this conflict will go, whether there will really be a ceasefire and whether Israel has achieved its objective.
How did Iran and America show wisdom?
What Iran did not do even after threats was not to close the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is important for both global and Iranian energy needs and even now, Iran's situation is not so serious that a blockade is required. The most surprising thing has been that during the entire fighting, Iran's proxy organizations like Hezbollah and Houthis remained completely missing from the scene. This is an important indication that Iran does not want this conflict to turn into a wider regional war. There was a danger of the war getting out of control due to the use of proxies and America would have to get involved in the war again, due to which Iran kept the war limited to itself this time.
Apart from this, America has also shown wisdom and given Iran a chance to 'save face'. The attack on Al-Udeid Airbase is reminiscent of Iran's response after the assassination of American General Qasim Suleimani in 2020. At that time too, Iran had attacked American bases in Iraq, but at that time also it did not harm any American by giving prior information. The same thing happened this time too. America did not respond again, which clearly shows that Washington does not want to get embroiled in another long conflict at the moment. One diplomatic indication of this is that America wants to end the tension by giving Iran a chance to "save its prestige". At least 10 thousand American soldiers live at Al-Udeid Airbase and if Iran had used a destructive missile, that too without informing and if the missile killed American soldiers, then America would have had to get involved in the war. Iran showed wisdom by not doing so.
What's next in the Israel-Iran war?
Donald Trump's post clearly shows that the US does not want to get embroiled in any conflict at the moment. In such a situation, the question is whether Israel has achieved its goal? Is Israel really in a mood to accept Donald Trump's decisions? But the Iran-Israel war has made many countries in West Asia realize the need for 'nuclear deterrence'. The UAE has already started the Arab world's first nuclear power plant and Saudi Arabia is also on the same path. Iran's nuclear capability and Israel's aggression can give rise to a new strategic race in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia can now work towards making nuclear weapons. In such a situation, the question now is whether Iran and Israel will back down from their respective agendas on Trump's initiative or will this conflict flare up again after some time?
