Ahmedabad: In the by-elections for two assembly seats in Gujarat, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has surprised everyone by registering a big victory in Visavadar. After this, a discussion has started whether AAP will replace Congress in Gujarat? AAP has done a feat in BJP's stronghold Gujarat which even political observers had very little expectation. In the by-election, the party not only retained the seat won in 2022 but also increased the margin of victory. By doing this, AAP has been successful in showing that it knows how to fight BJP. BJP last won the Visavadar seat in 2007 when Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself was the CM in the state. Since then, BJP has been trying to win this seat of Keshubhai Patel but its strategy has not been successful. After AAP's victory in Visavadar, Kejriwal's diplomacy is being discussed. It is being said that how Kejriwal, who had lost the election in Delhi elections, came back stronger?
1. Experiment of two Gopals was a hit: Kejriwal, who came on alert mode after the crushing defeat in Delhi elections, knew that if he has to save his won seat in Gujarat, then something different will have to be done. Kejriwal made his trusted Gopal Rai in-charge of Gujarat and immediately declared Gopal Italia as the candidate. Congress, which has more vote share than AAP in the state, was finally able to declare a candidate. By then, Isudan Gadhvi in Visavadar had made the complete electoral calculations of Gopal Italia joining Gopal Rai.
2. Congress was sidelined: Aam Aadmi Party's victory in Visavadar is big because the party has defeated BJP in the by-election. Not only this, it got 51.05% votes in Visavadar, while Congress lost its deposit. BJP won in Kadi by getting 59.39% votes. In Punjab, where AAP is in power, the party managed to get 39.02% votes. In such a situation, AAP's victory in Gujarat is big. That is why Aam Aadmi Party's state chief Isudan Gadhvi has given an open offer after the victory that good leaders in Congress should join AAP. We will defeat BJP.
3. Lifeline for AAP, disappointment in Congress: Visavadar's victory has filled AAP with new enthusiasm, while Congress has gone into deep disappointment. Factionalism continues even after Rahul Gandhi's 'New Gujarat-New Congress' campaign. After the by-election results, state chief Shakti Singh Gohil has resigned. In such a situation, Congress' crisis is expected to increase further. Congress' hold in Saurashtra has weakened, while four out of five AAP MLAs are from Saurashtra. When Gopal Italia won in Visavadar, slogans of Jawahar Chavda Zindabad were raised. Jawahar Chavda is in BJP now. He had joined BJP from Congress. After the victory in Visavadar, it is possible that some leaders turn to AAP.
4. Congress does not have the ability to fight: Rahul Gandhi has come to Gujarat three times after the Lok Sabha elections. He calls Congress workers as lions. The workers gather on the ground but 10 big leaders of the state unit are reluctant to contest the elections. In such a situation, Rahul Gandhi's strategy is not being implemented. AAP is now eyeing to break the ground level workers of Congress. If this happens, the crisis for Congress can increase further. AAP has shown by saving its seat that the party is not weak yet. After the victory in Visavadar, AAP has started saying that only AAP can fight BJP.
5. Long wait of 30 years: Congress voters in Gujarat have been waiting for a change of power for the last 30 years. The workers and district unit leaders are tired of struggling. It has been a common discussion in Gujarat that the top leaders of Congress settle with BJP. The second narrative is that they go to BJP after winning from Congress. AAP had lost one MLA in 30 months, but AAP has settled the score by capturing the seat. In such a situation, Congress supporters who did not vote for BJP can go towards AAP.
For Congress, there is a well ahead and a ditch behind
Congress, which was out of power in Gujarat in 1995, is now expected to face more crisis. After getting a new lease of life from Visavadar, AAP will again start strengthening itself, while on the other hand, AAP has a dual challenge of managing its leaders and vote bank. The problem in front of Rahul Gandhi is that he is not able to resolve the dispute between the state leaders. In the 2022 elections, due to AAP, the vote percentage of Congress had come down from 41.4 percent to 27.28 percent, while the vote share of BJP had increased. BJP had won 156 seats and got 52.50 percent votes, up from 49.01 percent. AAP got 12.92 percent votes. In such a situation, it should not be surprising if the Delhi incident is repeated in Gujarat.
